July 29, 2005

FROM THE BARREL OF MY PEN
By Gonzalo “Jun” Policarpio

VISION OF TWO PRESIDENTS BEHIND BARS


On television, they appeared to be a group of battery-operated clapping robots programmed to stand up about thirty times led by Speaker Jose de Venecia following about thirty lines of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s State of the Nation Address last week at the Batasang Pambansa(Congress of the Philippines). Indeed there was nothing to applaud in Arroyo’s cacophony of political and economic pretensions.

Those who pushed Arroyo in her speech focus on the idea of changing the Philippine Constitution and the form of government to a federal system without mentioning a bit about her impending removal from office must be practitioners of the magician’s sleight of hand trick. But they failed. Once again, it is very hard to fool the people all the time. The people’s clamor for Arroyo’s resignation even shifted to second gear.

Pulse Asia, a reliable opinion research group, reported in its July 2-14 survey that 73 percent of Filipinos want President Arroyo out of Malacanang through resignation, impeachment, snap elections or even unconstitutional means. What they now have in the Philippines is a self-imposed president who wants to rule without the consent of the governed. In a democracy, if the governed is extremely unhappy with the government leaders, they have the right to change them by whatever means possible, not the form of government. The issue of charter change in order to adopt a new form of government is not a solution to Arroyo’s unpopular leadership. The best solution so far is for President Arroyo to undergo a full examination of conscience as suggested by the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines and “CUT IT CLEANLY” Marcos style.

When Arroyo acting in concert with Chief Justice Hilario Davide grabbed the presidency from Estrada on January 20, 2001 following protest demonstrations at EDSA, she said “The president has not only lost moral authority to govern, but now has no government.” Fast forward January 20, 2006, another politician may utter similar statements and proclaim himself “the new commander –in-chief” of the Philippine Armed Forces. So the vision of two former Philippine presidents put behind bars is not a remote possibility.

END

About the author: He is the first Asian American and Filipino American to run for the U.S. Congress from New York in 2004. He is retired officer of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Citizenship and Immigrations Services. He worked as intelligence analyst in the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs Division of Intelligence and Research from 1968 to 1972 until Marcos imposed Martial Law. He taught at the University of Manila School of Foreign Service from 1968 to 1973 until he immigrated to the United States as an alien with outstanding qualifications. He has a Master’s degree in Public Administration from New York University and a Bachelor of Science degree in Foreign Service from the University of the Philippines.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
July 17, 2005

FROM THE BARREL OF MY PEN
By Gonzalo “Jun” Policarpio
www.junpolicarpio.com

GLORIA’S GRACEFUL EXIT

People everywhere, in America or in the Philippines, share common needs, demands, aspirations, or problems. They were all created by God from the same mold. Since the advent of time, their basic necessities of life remain the same: food, shelter, and clothing. The emergence of the civilized world introduced freedom, law and order, crime and punishment to be the essential elements of a democratic society.

Former President Clinton was caught lying under oath during his impeachment proceedings. The American people did not rush to the streets to demand his ouster even if it was revealed that he was doing the affairs of government while a young female intern was doing something immoral for him under his presidential desk. He was able to survive the Senate investigation to remove him from office. He did not resign but remained in office to complete his second term. Why? Because majority of the American people were enjoying life under a robust American economy.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo of the Philippines, in comparison, was caught in audio recordings speaking to Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano of the Commission on Elections, a constitutional body, and urging him to commit vote-padding or to fraudulently increase his vote tally. She called him at the time when the votes were being canvassed. She induced him to guarantee her of about one million-vote margin over her closest opponent, the late Fernando Poe, Jr., a popular movie actor. When she admitted apologetically that she was indeed the woman talking in the audio recordings, ten of her cabinet members who were perceived to be very close to her, former president Corazon Aquino, former vice-president Teofisto Guingona, Senate President Franklin Drilon, many business groups, and several legislators including her political allies urged her to step down and resign from the Office of the Presidency for the good of the people and democracy. Then the poor masses of the Filipino people followed up their indignant public demonstrations calling her to resign immediately. Several religious groups and Catholic priests and bishops join the people’s cry for Gloria’s quick exit from Malacanang Palace for good. The United States top diplomatic official in the Philippines changed his tone from supporting President Arroyo to supporting the rule of law. He expressed in a television interview that the United States is very disappointed of what’s happening in the Philippines.

Like a typical accused criminal, Arroyo denied having committed any crime. She refused to give in to any demand of resigning from the presidency. At the same time, her government forces snatched Garcilllano , her principal co-conspirator, presumably to prevent him from “ratting out” Mafia-style.

Sgt. Doble, an Army soldier, initially admitted to former deputy director of the National Bureau of Investigation Samuel Ong that he was the eavesdropper. Ong publicly announced that he is the source of the original audio recordings “ the mother of all tapes.” Then, out of nowhere came a frantic call from Doble’s wife asking government authorities to rescue Doble from the Jesuit Seminary where he was staying with Ong. In the recordings, Garcillano boasted to President Arroyo in one occasion that he would order the kidnapping of the wife and children of an election official who threatened to “spill the beans out” on their fraudulent scheme, criminal syndicate –style. While in custody of President Arroyo’s forces, Sgt. Doble changed his story to the media and before a Congressional inquiry. His scared countenance during the hearing and his inconsistencies betrayed his false testimony.

After listening to the audio recordings, the fools would doubt the involvement of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in a blatant scheme to steal the presidential election of 2004. Yet there still exist more intelligent and wiser Filipinos anywhere in the world. The Philippine Military cannot remain neutral for a long period of time. The United States has already spoken through her diplomat in the Philippines that she supports the “rule of law” which is not the same as the rule of an outlaw.

President Arroyo should not behave like Brazilian President Lula who was able to remain in power despite corruption charges and calls for resignation. The Brazilian economy is very strong and the people are happy. Former President Corazon Aquino survived her presidency despite a number of coup attempts. But she was not caught cheating in a presidential election.

Arroyo needs to study the last days of Chilean President Salvador Allende, Argentinean President Isabel Peron, and Pakistani leader Benazir Bhutto who were all forced out office. She may also review the last days of Philippine President Marcos.

Joining her family’s self-imposed exile in the United States is a good option for President Arroyo to make a graceful exit from power. Whatever the Philippine Constitution prescribes as to her successor should prevail unless her vice-president is the “underboss.”
End

About the author: He is the first Asian American and Filipino American to run for the U.S. Congress from New York in 2004. He is a retired officer of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Citizenship and Immigration Services. He worked as intelligence analyst in the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs Division of Intelligence and Research from 1968 to 1972 until Marcos imposed Martial Law. He taught at the University of Manila School of Foreign Service from 1968 to 1973 until he immigrated to the United States as an alien with outstanding qualifications. He has a Master’s degree in Public Administration from New York University and Bachelor’s degree in Foreign Service from the University of the Philippines.

FROM THE BARREL OF MY PEN
By Gonzalo “Jun” Policarpio


BATTLE OF THE PINAY LEADERS

The technical dismissal of the impeachment complaint against President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo by her pro-Arroyo members of the House of Representatives did not end the political crisis but re-installed a people’s movement to topple the Arroyo presidency. What came out it is a very interesting political boxing match between the incumbent female leader, Gloria, against two female opponents, Cory and Susan who are leading the mass actions. Who will win?

Normally when women fight, it’s the men who intervene to stop it, perhaps none other than the men in uniform. Given the current Philippine situation of rising consumer prices, skyrocketing energy costs, grumblings within the Philippine military, rampant corruption in all branches of government, loss of trust of the people on their president, I may conclude that it would be just a matter of months for this scenario to happen: a civilian-military coup d’etat unless pre-empted by Gloria’s resignation.

Students of history and political science are more inclined to see clearly the interplay of various factors that may determine a nation’s fate. The Philippines has already experienced several attempts by military elements to grab power. During Marcos’s time, a group of military leaders staged a mutiny and sequestered themselves in a military camp. The people gathered around the camp and saved them from a massacre. During Cory Aquino’s rule, seven military coups failed to oust her from power. Now, under Arroyo’s administration, a group of junior military officers staged a mini-revolt in the commercial center of Makati commonly dubbed as the Oakwood Mutiny. It was not really a coup but a protest demonstration of junior military leaders against their corrupt superiors.

Similar interplay of social, economic, and political factors led to the military coups in Latin America, Asia, and Africa, particularly in such countries as Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Mauritania, Burma, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Liberia. Concerned Filipino patriots should learn from history and propose solutions in order to save our people from a violent upheaval if mistakes from the past would not be corrected. It is good that democracy is still very much alive in the Philippines today. Let’s hope that the sovereign will of the Filipino people prevail in the midst of the raging political crisis that threatens it.

End

FROM THE BARREL OF MY PEN
By Gonzalo “Jun” Policarpio


BATTLE OF THE PINAY LEADERS


The technical dismissal of the impeachment complaint against President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo by her pro-Arroyo members of the House of Representatives did not end the political crisis but re-installed a people’s movement to topple the Arroyo presidency. What came out it is a very interesting political boxing match between the incumbent female leader, Gloria, against two female opponents, Cory and Susan who are leading the mass actions. Who will win?

Normally when women fight, it’s the men who intervene to stop it, perhaps none other than the men in uniform. Given the current Philippine situation of rising consumer prices, skyrocketing energy costs, grumblings within the Philippine military, rampant corruption in all branches of government, loss of trust of the people on their president, I may conclude that it would be just a matter of months for this scenario to happen: a civilian-military coup d’etat unless pre-empted by Gloria’s resignation.

Students of history and political science are more inclined to see clearly the interplay of various factors that may determine a nation’s fate. The Philippines has already experienced several attempts by military elements to grab power. During Marcos’s time, a group of military leaders staged a mutiny and sequestered themselves in a military camp. The people gathered around the camp and saved them from a massacre. During Cory Aquino’s rule, seven military coups failed to oust her from power. Now, under Arroyo’s administration, a group of junior military officers staged a mini-revolt in the commercial center of Makati commonly dubbed as the Oakwood Mutiny. It was not really a coup but a protest demonstration of junior military leaders against their corrupt superiors.

Similar interplay of social, economic, and political factors led to the military coups in Latin America, Asia, and Africa, particularly in such countries as Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Mauritania, Burma, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Liberia. Concerned Filipino patriots should learn from history and propose solutions in order to save our people from a violent upheaval if mistakes from the past would not be corrected. It is good that democracy is still very much alive in the Philippines today. Let’s hope that the sovereign will of the Filipino people prevail in the midst of the raging political crisis that threatens it.

End